How Important are the Candidates? What if Merkel were Steinmeier and SteinbrĂĽck were Merkel?

Originally published on this blog in German on August 29th, 2013.

Especially when elections are in the offing, the personalization of politics is a highly popular thesis. It is claimed:

  • That more attention is paid to politicians than to the content of politics and the merits of parties
  • That assessing the private and personal qualities of candidates for the chancellorship is more important than judging distinctly political qualities
  • That these have been growing trends in recent years. Weiterlesen

TagungsankĂĽndigung: Demokratie und Demoskopie – Wechselverhältnis und Einflussfaktoren

Umfragedaten zu politischen Fragen sollen Auskunft darüber geben, was die Bevölkerung denkt und bewegt und wie es um die politische Stimmung im Land bestellt ist. Durch die Zunahme der Umfragen und die gleichzeitig steigende mediale Berichterstattung gewinnen die erhobenen Zahlen zunehmend auch an Bedeutung für den politischen Diskurs. Weiterlesen

War das wirklich so gewollt? Die Bundestagswahl 2013 und das Wählerverhalten

Dieser Beitrag ist – neben weiteren lesenswerten Berichten – auch in der aktuellen Ausgabe der WZB-Mitteilungen erschienen. Die komplette Ausgabe gibt es hier (pdf), zu den einzelnen Beiträgen folgt ihr diesem Link.

Die Bundestagswahl 2013 reiht sich in die Kette ungewöhnlicher Bundestagswahlen im 21. Jahrhundert ein. Erstens erschütterten die Wählerinnen und Wähler mit ihren Stimmabgaben am 22. September letzten Jahres das deutsche Parteiensystem. Zweitens war die Bundestagswahl 2013 diejenige, bei der die Volatilität, also die Veränderung der Stimmenanteile der Parteien von einer Wahl zur anderen, stärker war als bei jeder anderen Bundestagswahl zuvor. Drittens führte das Wahlergebnis nach für Deutschland relativ langen Verhandlungen in eine Regierung der Koalition der beiden großen Parteien, CDU/CSU und SPD. Eine Große Koalition hatte es zuvor in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik nur zweimal gegeben. Weiterlesen

Pfadabhängigkeit, Elitenversagen und Geopolitik in der demokratischen Transformation: Das Lehrstück Ukraine

Ein Gastbeitrag von Yuliya Erner (Doktorandin an der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

Seit nun mehr als drei Monaten steht die Ukraine im Mittelpunkt der Nachrichten: Ende November 2013 haben sich auf dem Platz der Unabhängigkeit in Kiew Menschen versammelt, die das politische Regime von Präsident Janukowitsch nicht mehr tolerieren wollten. Den Anlass für die Proteste (bekannt als Euro-Maidan) bot die Absage des ukrainischen Präsidenten, ein Assoziierungsabkommen mit der Europäischen Union zu unterschreiben. Im Februar 2014 floh Präsident Janukowitsch und wurde für abgesetzt erklärt. Ein paar Tage später hat das russische Parlament in Moskau Präsident Putin die Genehmigung erteilt, russische Militärkräfte zum Schutz der russischen Bevölkerung auf der Krim zu aktivieren. Weiterlesen

Review of the Bundestag Election 2013: FDP Out – Women In?

Originally published on this blog in German on October 2nd, 2013.

After more or less stagnating for 15 years, the proportion of women in the German Bundestag has for the first time reached the mark of 36.9%. That is an increase of a good 5%. The CDU and CSU parliamentary groups now have more woman members than ever before and women are markedly overrepresented in the Green and Left Party groups. This is quite unexpected. As we had shown in an earlier contribution, the parties had broken no new ground in nominating candidates for this last election to the Bundestag. Weiterlesen

The Free Market is Male: Proportion of Female Candidates for the Bundestag Election 2013

Originally published on this blog in German on Septmeber 19th, 2013.

Do women make politics differently from men? The answer lies somewhere between gender stereotypes and contradictory empirical findings. Do women automatically do better work in parliamentary assemblies than men simply because they are women? This seems rather unlikely. Is a low proportion of women in parliament a problem for democracy? This is surely the case, for it points to structural discrimination that cannot be eclipsed simply by having a woman head the federal government. After the Bundestag election in 2009, the proportion of women in the house was only 32.8%, a figure that had more or less stagnated since the 1998 election. The debate about quotas in top management in business could easily be transferred to the Bundestag and political parties. Weiterlesen

In Bad Company: Hard Repression in Autocracies

Originally published on this blog in German on Septmeber 12th, 2013.

Political repression in the sense of systematic violation of civil and political rights is practically a defining property of autocracies. If autocratic governments want to stay in power they have to be in a position to repress dissidents and to eliminate opposition. Under these circumstances, political repression becomes a key tool. Whether the army of Myanmar savagely crushes the 1988 democracy movement or Alexander Lukashenko imprisons the presidential candidate of the opposition, the intention is the same: via political repression, autocratic regimes seek to prevent the development of forceful political opposition movements. But to what extent do autocracies actually resort to political repression? What developments are to be observed over time? And how does political repression affect the chances of democratization? These and closely related questions are addressed by the project “Critical Junctures and the Survival of Dictatorships. Explaining the Stability of Autocratic Regimes” at the WZB. Weiterlesen

The Myth of the “Democratic Coup” in Egypt

Originally published on this blog in German on November 12th, 2013.

After the fall of the Mubarak regime in February 2011 and the ensuing 18-month “transitional period,” during which Egypt was ruled by a military junta – the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) – the Egyptian army once again intervened in the political fortunes of the country on 2 July 2013. In a television address, the minister of defence and commander-in-chief of the armed forces General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announced the dismissal of President Mohamed Morsi, democratically elected only a year earlier, and the suspension of the controversial new constitution. In December 2012, despite the withdrawal of left wing, liberal, and Christian representatives from the Islamist-dominated constitutional convention, this constitution had been accepted by referendum with a very low voter turnout. Instead of returning power to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, General al-Sisi appointed the president of the Supreme Constitutional Court Adly Mansour interim president, instructing him to form a “technocratic government.” The army leadership wanted this government to remain in place for an indeterminate “transitional period” until early elections could be held. The measures were justified on the grounds that the president, who had emerged from the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, had been unwilling to engage in a “national dialogue” to end weeks of mass opposition protests against Morsi’s increasingly authoritarian style of government and the bad economic situation in the country. ((For an English translation of the television declaration by General al-Sisi of 3 July 2013 see: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/201373203740167797.html))

Weiterlesen

Wegschauen macht mitschuldig: Deutschland und die Syrienkrise

Dies ist ein crosspost eines Beitrags, der zuerst auf dem Blog Alsharq (arabisch für „Der Osten“) erschienen ist.

Die Bundesrepublik muss ihrer internationalen Verantwortung gerecht werden und sich im Zuge der Syrien-Konferenz in Genf aktiv fĂĽr eine friedliche Beilegung des syrischen BĂĽrgerkrieges engagieren. Dabei ist die neue Bundesregierung eigentlich in einer guten Position, um eine diplomatische Mittlerrolle zwischen den Konfliktparteien und den internationalen Akteuren zu ĂĽbernehmen. Weiterlesen

Below the Surface: Federalism and State Party Autonomy in the U.S.

A key assumption coming out of the 2012 presidential election in the U.S. was that polarization of the party system was, once again, increasing dramatically. The 2012 campaign was immediately dubbed the most polarized and partisan yet – a familiar declaration given that 2008, 2004, and 2000 had also been dubbed the most polarized elections of their respective times. Uniquely, though, instead of justifying this declaration solely on the basis of presidential candidates‘ positions the platforms themselves were also held up as key evidence. ((See, e.g., NY Times 29.8.2012, 05.09.2012; Washington Times 27.08.2012; Chicago Tribune 27.08.2012, 05.09.2012.)) The question, then, is the extent to which the polarization of the 2012 election reported by media sources reflected actual levels of polarization. Using newly coded party manifesto data ((You can find a brief introduction to the manifesto project here))  from the 2012 national level elections, we show that (contrary to popular opinion) polarization levels for the 2012 elections were relatively stable. The overall trend in polarization for the U.S. remains unchanging and the party system is not suffering from great increases in overall polarization levels. Weiterlesen